14 Months After Their “Triumph” Against Israel, Iran and Its Allies Are Reeling

The outlook for the axis of evil goes from bad to worse.

Hezbollah names deputy leader Naim Qassem as secretary-general, successor to Nasrallah. (The Times of Israel)

Shortly after the Israel–Hizballah ceasefire agreement was signed, Naim Qassem, the new leader of Hizballah replacing Hassan Nasrallah, declared:

We are on the verge of a divine victory. . . . The war began with the goal of destroying Hezbollah, returning [Israeli] civilians to the North, and building a new Middle East. Israel expected to achieve its objectives quickly after striking our leadership and capabilities. Hezbollah managed to stand firm on the frontlines and began hitting Israel’s internal front.

The resistance has proven through this war that it is prepared, and Nasrallah’s plans were effective and accounted for all developments. Israel gambled on internal conflicts [in Lebanon], but that gamble failed due to cooperation. The resilience of the resistance shocked the world, frightened the Israeli army, and brought despair to the enemy.

In reality, the ceasefire could turn out to be a net plus for Israel if it, with US help, can stop Iran from rebuilding and rearming Hizballah. If the arrangement starts coming apart, Israel will renew the fighting. But in any case, Qassem’s claim of a “divine victory” is at variance with truth.

A summary by the Israel Defense Forces of its warfare against Hizballah over the past 14 months notes that:

Over 12,500 Hezbollah targets were struck, including 1,600 command centers and 1,000 weapons depots. . . .

The IDF says it has confirmed with high confidence the deaths of 2,500 Hezbollah operatives, though it estimates that number to be around 3,500.

Among the dead are Hezbollah’s former longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and 13 members of the terror group’s top leadership.

Also among the dead are four Hezbollah commanders at the division level, 24 brigade-level commanders, 27 battalion-level commanders, 63 company-level commanders, and 22 platoon-level commanders.

The IDF says it has captured some 12,000 explosive devices and drones; 13,000 rockets, launchers, and anti-tank and anti-aircraft missile systems; and 121,000 pieces of communications equipment and computers.

Also worth noting is that, a few hours before the ceasefire went into effect:

Israeli fighter jets destroyed the terror group’s largest underground precision-guided missile manufacturing site in Lebanon. . . , which was hidden in a subterranean complex that stretched for 1.4 kilometers (less than a mile) . . . in eastern Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley. . . .

Fighter jets pounded the location for over four hours . . . dealing “a blow to the Hezbollah terror organization’s ability to produce weapons. . . . ”

The missile manufacturing plant was built several years ago with Iranian support, the IDF said.

“This was Hezbollah’s most strategically significant production facility in Lebanon targeted during the war. The strike was made possible by a precise intelligence file that was collected and built over the years,” the IDF said. . . .

Preventing Hezbollah from obtaining precision-guided missiles has been a central plank of Israel’s [effort] to disrupt Iran’s weapons supply to the terror group.

In short, if this war has been a “divine victory” for Hizballah, here in Israel we pray that we will never experience such a “victory.” The fact that Hizballah has given up its promise to keep fighting as long as the fighting in Gaza continues—a promise it had kept reiterating since it initiated cross-border hostilities with Israel in October 2023—further underlines the fact that, under Iran’s prompting, it opted for the ceasefire in the hope of salvaging itself.

If things at that point were looking bleak for Iran’s “ring of fire” strategy—intended to surround Israel with terror proxies that would eventually burn it out of existence—they look even worse now that, in a surprise offensive, rebels in northern Syria have taken over Aleppo, the country’s second largest city, and other towns.

Instead of striving to resuscitate the Lebanon front against Israel, Iran and Hizballah—staunch allies of the Assad regime that seemingly had succeeded to help prop it up—will now have to divert resources (along with Russia, hard pressed in Ukraine) to the much more acute crisis unfolding in Syria.

The rebels, by all accounts, moved when they did because Iran’s axis was already in a much weakened state—weakened by Israel’s military successes against Hamas, Hizballah, and Iran itself.

While a heterogeneous group, the rebels are currently led by Sunni Islamists who could also pose dangers. What’s clear at the moment, though, is that Iran is itself in an acute crisis as its alliance sustains blow after blow, and not at all sanguine about an incoming US administration that will be much better at telling the difference between friends and enemies than the previous one.

Though it seemed to them a great triumph at the time, it’s hard to believe that at this point (surviving) leaders of Hamas, Hizballah, and Iran would not undo the October 7, 2023, massacre in Israel if they could.