Lebanon May Be Throwing Off the Hizballah Yoke—Thanks (but No Thanks) to Israel

Mixed signals from the Land of the Cedars.

A few days ago Lebanon’s new president Joseph Aoun said Israel had to “withdraw from occupied territories” in southern Lebanon by the January 26 deadline stipulated in the Israel–Hizballah ceasefire, which was signed on November 27.

Aoun slammed what he called “Israel’s continued violations” of the pact and said: “Blowing up homes and destroying border villages, completely contradicts what was stated in the ceasefire agreement.”

The agreement, notwithstanding, allows Israel to act against threats, and Hizballah fighters have been violating it by continuing to operate south of the Litani River, within 18 miles of Israel. Israel has been attacking its fighters and its weaponry there while claiming the Lebanese army and UNIFIL are not doing enough to enforce the agreement.

What’s notable about Aoun’s harsh and mendacious condemnation of Israel’s ongoing military activity in southern Lebanon is a certain lack of appreciation.

It was, of course, solely Israel’s rapid and devastating campaign against Hizballah—which began with its assassination of Fuad Shukr on July 30 and continued with its pager-and-walkie-talkie attack on Hizballah operatives, its killing of Hassan Nasrallah and almost the entire Hizballah top brass, its crushing of the Radwan Force in southern Lebanon, and its relentless aerial bombing of Hizballah’s weapons stockpiles—that made it possible for Aoun to stake a claim to the leadership of Lebanon in the first place.

Aoun, a Maronite Christian Lebanese military leader who is considered a moderate and backed by the US, France, and Saudi Arabia, was elected president on January 9 by a Lebanese parliament no longer answerable to, or intimidated by, Hizballah.

With Aoun’s backing, on January 13 the new, improved, freely functioning Lebanese parliament nominated another moderate in the Lebanese context, Nawaf Salam, as the new Lebanese prime minister, set to replace Hizballah-backed Najib Mikati.

In his previous job, Salam—who, like Aoun, shows no affection for Israel—was president of the International Court of Justice when it decided to hear South Africa’s libelous “genocide” lawsuit against Israel.

But both Aoun and Salam are now where they are—heading a new Lebanon with a real chance to throw off the Iranian-sponsored Hizballah yoke after four decades—only because of Israel’s military efforts and sacrifices, and they know it.

Meanwhile, a report on Wednesday gives room for cautious optimism about the unfolding changes in Lebanon.

A “Western diplomat” is quoting saying that, with Israel already having withdrawn its forces from two areas in southern Lebanon, the “ceasefire enforcement mechanism”—involving mainly the US and France—is preparing for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to redeploy in those areas and others if Israel sees fit to vacate them.

The report notes:

Since the ceasefire began, the LAF has deployed 6,000 soldiers in southern Lebanon, conducting over 100 operations to neutralize Hezbollah infrastructure, including the destruction of rocket launchers, buildings and other facilities. According to Western diplomats, about one-third of these operations were initiated by the LAF, with the remainder carried out at the request of the U.S.-led enforcement mechanism. It is believed that some of these requests originated from Israel.

And in another development allowing for guarded optimism:

Syria’s new government issued a statement pledging to maintain stability along its shared border with Lebanon. Syria has also signaled to the international community and Israel its intent to prevent Iran and Hezbollah from resuming arms transfers from Syria into Lebanon.

Syria’s new leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, with his jihadist résumé and Turkish backing, is still an unknown quantity viewed with great suspicion by the Israeli top brass. But an intention to choke off Iranian arms supply to Hizballah via the Syrian–Lebanese border could help further degrade Hizballah’s influence in Lebanon.

Israel will have to decide by January 26 whether to pull out of southern Lebanon. A “yes” will indicate real progress; a “no,” which seems more likely, will indicate that the conditions of a Lebanese-army takeover and neutralization of Hizballah aren’t yet fulfilled.

But if Lebanon is on the way to becoming, again, the geopolitically moderate, relatively democratic and prosperous Middle Eastern country it once was, free of the Iran–Hizballah albatross, it has Israel to thank for it, even if it never will.

Update, Jan. 24: Israeli PM Netanyahu says Israel will not fully withdraw from southern Lebanon on Sunday:

Since Lebanon “has not yet fully enforced” its obligations under the ceasefire, “the phased withdrawal process will continue, in full coordination with the United States.” The original 60-day deadline was slated for Sunday, January 26.

In other words, the withdrawal will continue in accordance with the LAF’s progress in gaining military control in the south. So far the progress is definitely not complete. Netanyahu’s words indicate that US-Israeli agreement was reached on delaying the full Israeli withdrawal.

According to some reports, LAF units that are under the command of pro-Hizballah officers are not complying with the requirement of ousting Hizballah. That could mean the “process” is in danger, leading to resumed hostilities.